Pemberton & Co. acted as independent quantum expert in an investment-treaty arbitration that tribunals and practitioners are already citing as a reference point.
The dispute arose from changes to a support regime for renewable generation assets, which the claimant argued had undermined the basis of its original investment. Our team was instructed to assess the loss caused by those measures. The proceedings remain confidential, and we cannot comment on the parties, the tribunal, the seat or the amount awarded.
Our role in the proceedings
Our work focused on reconstructing the cash flows the assets would have generated under the original regime and comparing them with the position after the measures were introduced. That required detailed modelling of generation profiles, tariff mechanisms and operating costs across a long project life, each tested against contemporaneous market data and the regulatory record available to investors at the time.
The tribunal’s reasoning shows how carefully built counterfactuals can carry weight in regulatory-change claims.
The team also addressed the respondent’s expert on discount rates, the treatment of later market developments and the appropriate valuation date—issues that frequently determine the outcome in long-horizon energy-sector disputes involving regulated returns. Throughout, our aim was to give the tribunal a model it could adjust transparently rather than a single figure to accept or reject.
Why the award matters
Although the details remain confidential, the tribunal’s approach to the counterfactual and to post-measure evidence offers useful guidance for future claims. We expect it to inform how investors and states frame expert evidence in similar disputes. The mandate reflects the depth of our energy and arbitration practice across London and New York, and our continuing commitment to rigorous, independent analysis in high-stakes investment-treaty proceedings.